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Methodology

Research held to a published standard.

The Association's standing rests on a single claim: that its research can be checked. Every claim says what kind of claim it is. Every hypothesis states what would prove it wrong. Every source carries a grade. Every model earns its standing by testing. Every prediction is registered before the fact and scored after. The standard below is published in full, applied without exception, and versioned under founder change control.

Standards v1.1Adopted 21 July 2026SOP-1 to SOP-6Field Guide v1.0
01The Governing Documents

The governing documents are published in full.

This page states the standard legibly; the documents govern. All three are public.

CRA-STD-METH-1.1v1.1 · adopted 2026-07-21

CRA Methodology Standards

The standard itself: classification, falsification, sources, models, machine assistance, framework representation, the two shelves, review, change control.

Start here. This is the document to read if you want the rules.

CRA-SOP-1..6-1.1v1.1 · adopted 2026-07-21

CRA Operating Procedures, SOP-1 to SOP-6

Who does what, in what order, on what timeline: publication, member submissions, source grading, forward claims, model review, Collection curation.

For contributors and reviewers. The machinery underneath the Standards, rather than the Standards themselves.

CRA-FG-CONTRIB-1.0v1.0 · issued 2026-07-21

CRA Contributor Field Guide

The standard in plain language, with worked examples and every template: claims tables, model cards, disclosures, registration forms.

For anyone who would rather meet the standard through examples than through the standard itself.

02·Epistemic Classification

Every claim says what kind of claim it is.

EF

Established Finding

Measured directly, or corroborated by independent high-grade sources, with nothing of equal grade contradicting it. Cited at the point of use and reproducible by a third party.

The excess length of day reached negative values repeatedly in 2024 and 2025 (EF; IERS C04).

WH

Working Hypothesis

A proposed explanation consistent with the evidence but not established. Published only together with what it explains and the conditions that would falsify it.

The post-2015 tightening of the polar wobble reflects a change in core-mantle coupling state (WH).

OQ

Open Question

A material unknown, named explicitly. Where the evidence does not reach, the publication says so; suppressing an obvious open question is a standards violation.

Whether the current dipole decline continues past the 7,000-year minimum is an open question (OQ).

The Falsification ConditionRequired for every WH

If [the observable] in [the instrument or dataset] shows [the threshold or signature] within [the window], the hypothesis is revised or withdrawn.

Conditions that no realistic observation could trigger do not satisfy the standard. When a condition triggers, the outcome publishes within one cycle, whether or not it favors prior work.

03Source Discipline

Evidence is graded, and the bar scales with the claim.

TierDefinitionEFWHOQ
S1Primary instrumental or archival data from an authoritative producer
S2Peer-reviewed literature, or independently replicated analysis
S3Documented secondary sources of identifiable provenance
S4Uncorroborated material
supports the label with conditions: EF needs two independent S2 lines; S4 may motivate an OQ only does not carry it

Sources sharing a common origin count once: corroboration means independent derivation, not repetition. Evidence ages on a stated schedule, and every publication states the data-currency date of its key series. Where credible evidence of comparable grade points in opposing directions, both are presented side by side; nothing is silently reconciled or averaged away.

Compiled recordThe deep-time event record · last 800,000 years
Laj & Channell; Channell 2006; Singer 2014; Lascu et al. 2016; Alley 2000; Bond et al. 1997, 2001; deMenocal et al. 2000
THE LAST 120,000 YEARS · EXPANDED120 ka100 ka80 ka60 ka40 ka20 kaBlake · ~120 kaNorwegian-Greenland Sea · ~64 kaLaschamp · ~41 kabest-documentedMono Lake · ~34 kaGothenburg · ~13 kaage debatedYounger Dryas onset · ~12.9 ka8.2 ka eventBond Event 4 · ~5.9 kaSahara aridificationPRESENT120,000 TO 800,000 YEARS · COMPRESSEDBRUNHES CHRON · STABLE NORMAL POLARITYBRUNHES–MATUYAMA REVERSAL · ~773 kathe last full polarity reversal700 ka600 ka500 ka400 ka300 ka200 kaIceland Basin · ~190 kaPringle Falls · ~211 kaBig Lost · ~565 kaage debatedexpanded above
Geomagnetic excursionAbrupt climate eventPresent
Plate I. Dated events from the published literature on two time bands: the last 120,000 years expanded, where the geomagnetic and abrupt climate records both resolve, and the remainder of the Brunhes chron compressed to its lower boundary at 773 ka. Ages are published midpoints and carry the uncertainty of their underlying chronologies.Source: Laj & Channell; Channell 2006; Singer 2014; Lascu et al. 2016; Alley 2000; Bond et al. 1997, 2001; deMenocal et al. 2000. Dated events only, at published midpoint ages; no continuous curve is interpolated between them. Debated chronologies are marked on the figure.

The plate is the ladder applied. Every event on it rests on a different quality of chronology, several are marked as debated, and the Association grades each at the point of use rather than grading the producers once and reusing the verdict.

04·Modeling Standards

Models earn their standing by testing, not by presentation.

Every model whose outputs appear in Association work carries a published model card: authors and declared track record, the assumptions register, input data with versions, calibration method, code availability, and its maturity grade. The declared history must be truthful; the gate on publication, however, is the validation record of the model, not the biography of the modeler.

SchematicThe model maturity ladder · M0 to M3
CRA Methodology Standards v1.1, section 6
MODEL MATURITY LADDER · M0 TO M3METHODOLOGY STANDARDS §8M0CONCEPTUALStated mechanism or structure.Discussed as WH or OQ only;never plotted as if predictive.M1VERIFIEDImplementation demonstrablycorrect: test cases and sanitychecks reproduce under review.M2HINDCAST-TESTEDOut-of-sample skill on apre-declared holdout, against astated baseline. Reproducible.M3LIVE-SCOREDRegistered forward claimsresolved and scored in public,hits and misses alike.FORWARD CLAIMS PERMITTED FROM M2DISCUSSION AND VALIDATIONPREDICTIVE SKILL · M3 RECORD ONLY
Plate II. Every model carries exactly one grade, printed on its card and beside every published output. Grades are earned by validation evidence and withdrawn on irreproducibility; the gate is the ladder, not the resume.Source: CRA Methodology Standards v1.1, section 6. Diagram of the ladder as written in the Standards. No data; no model is placed on it here.
05Machine-Assisted Work

Sophistication is not evidence.

01

Disclose it

Material machine assistance in drafting, code, analysis, or synthesis is declared in the work, in a standard statement identifying what was assisted.

02

It is never evidence

Every quantitative result must re-derive from named data and stated methods by a third party without the assisting system. What cannot be re-derived does not enter the archive.

03

The author owns it

Fabricated citations, invented data, or unverified generated results under a contributor's name are misrepresentation, whatever produced them. Review evaluates derivations, never eloquence.

The Association's Own Disclosure · Standards §9.5

The Association applies this section to itself. Its research operations, engineering, and drafting make material use of machine assistance, operated under the rules above: machine output is never evidence in Association work, every quantitative result re-derives from named data and stated methods, and the named human authors own every claim.

06Framework Representation

Other researchers' work is represented faithfully or not at all.

The Association describes research by topic field. A researcher's named theory, framework, or brand appears in Association work only with written consent, and only where the work is faithful to its published specification. Attaching a framework's name to work that materially departs from it is a standards violation, in sympathetic and critical treatments alike.

01The claim is madeA work claims to model, test, extend, or refute a named third-party framework.
02The originator reviewsBefore the name is used, the framework's originator is offered a fidelity review against their published specification, with a stated response window.
03Name, or renameWith consent and confirmed fidelity, the name is used. Without either, the work still publishes on its merits, renamed to describe what it actually models.

Consent governs the use of the name, never the publication of the analysis. The full property terms, including the researcher-retains-everything partnership model, are in the Standards and the Research Partnership Standards.

07·The Two Shelves

What the Association reviewed, and what it curates, never blur.

The Archive

Work reviewed under this standard: Association publications, accepted member submissions, prepared datasets, and model cards. Carries CRA identifiers and the standard version it was reviewed under. Versioned; history is never silently rewritten.

The Collection

Curated external work held by link, attribution, and source grade: analyses, threads, talks, and documents that inform the field. Nothing is absorbed or reproduced; owners direct their entries and may remove them at any time. Curation asserts relevance, not review.

Presence in the Collection confers no elevation; the only path between shelves is review. Commissioned work is paid under the partnership honoraria schedule, and a finder's honorarium recognizes members who surface material that becomes commissioned work.

08Forward Claims and Calibration

Every prediction is registered before the fact and scored after it.

SchematicThe forward claim lifecycle
CRA Operating Procedures v1.1, SOP-4
FORWARD CLAIM LIFECYCLEMETHODOLOGY STANDARDS §7 · SOP-4REGISTEREDStatement, observable, threshold,resolution trigger; before publication.PUBLISHEDCarried exactly as registered;edits require re-registration.MONITOREDRegister reviewed monthly;one documented extension allowed.RESOLVEDScored against the observable:confirmed, refuted, indeterminate.SCOREDOutcome published either way;refutation triggers §3.3.THE CUMULATIVE RECORD IS PUBLISHED · NO SELECTIVE OMISSION
Plate III. No unregistered prediction is published under the Association's name, and no claim of predictive skill is made except from this record.Source: CRA Operating Procedures v1.1, SOP-4. Diagram of the registered procedure. No data; no claim is shown at any stage.
09·Review and Member Submissions

Every submission travels the same path into the archive.

Every Association publication passes six audits before release: labels, falsification, sources, figures, models, and framework names. Member submissions travel the same standard through a structured review; the portal opens with the platform. Acceptance asserts conformance with the standard, never endorsement of every conclusion, and attribution always remains with the author.

01IntakeStructured submission: metadata, methodology declaration, datasets and versions, model cards, disclosures, claims summary.
02ScreenScope and facial conformance, including the framework-name check. About ten business days, with structured feedback on failure.
03Peer reviewTwo reviewers apply the audits; model-bearing work routes through validation review in parallel. About thirty days.
04ResolutionAccept, revise and resubmit, or decline, always with written rationale. Declining implies no judgment beyond the standard.
05PublicationInto the versioned archive under the author's name, with the standard version recorded. Attribution stays with the author.

Work to the standard in an afternoon.

The Contributor Field Guide restates everything on this page as working checklists and templates: claims tables, model cards, disclosures, and the submission checklist.